The End of the Same-Sex Marriage Debate

Here's the graphic that says it all:

This pic comes from Chris Cillizza's Washington Post 'The FIx' column from yesterday, dealing with Rob Portman's changed stance on gay marriage.  Portman--a fiscal conservative with a long history of being "only loosely concerned with social issues like marriage and abortion"--is about as Establishment Republican as you can get.  With a resume that includes service in the House, not one but two Cabinet posts in the Bush administration and now a Senate seat from Ohio, is it any wonder that his name was always near the top of the lists when Romney's VP choices were bandied about?  Coming hard on the heels of the Supreme Court brief urging the recognition of the Constitutional right to marry by more than 100 big shot Republicans, it seems as though may--I repeat, MAY--be starting to get a clue that this is an issue that's not a winner for them.

It seems likely that Senator Portman's 'evolution' was prompted by his own son's coming out.  Like Dick Cheney before him, Rob found himself forced to personally face up to the consequences of a policy that regulates a member of his family to second-class citizen status.  As Newt so elegantly laid out his choices yesterday on CNN, Portman could either (a) stand on his position, and abandon his son, (b) stand on his position, but still love the son or (c) change his position because he loves his son.  (Okay, I'm paraphrasing here...go listen to Newt's own words and judge for yourself.)

Since choice (a) makes you a complete scum of an underwear stain and (b) makes you both a hypocrite and an underwear stain, as well as leading to very awkward holiday meals, Portman chose (c).  I have no doubt that the Usual Suspects will castigate him strenuously for choosing to love his son enough to publicly pull his head out of his ass, but he only gets points from me for doing this.

BTW, as long as there are 1100+ federal benefits to marriage, denying them to any citizen violates the 14th Amendment.  Don't make me go Ted Cruz on Diane Feinstein on you.  Until I can get the 'why the DOMA is indefensible' bit written, let's just leave it at that.

Now, Portman's announcement isn't going to make the RNC break out the rainbow banners any time soon.  54% of Republicans still 'strongly oppose' marriage.  But, take another look at the graph at the beginning of this post.  Note that the 'breakpoint' is in the 50-64 age group, with every younger demographic showing more support than not for same-sex marriage.  Also note that the younger the group, the higher the support.  Even the morons at the RNC ought to be able to do this math:  the opposition to gay marriage will die off LONG before the support will.  Eventually, it WILL come about, even 'way down here in Alabamistan...once enough of the TailBaptists die off.  (Come that day soon, Oh Lord, come that day soon....)

Cillizza points out (correctly, I think) that what we can expect to see from younger, less stupid Republicans in the foreseeable future is for them to just...not talk about same-sex marriage.  He compares this issue to the Democrat's realization in the 90's that gun control was a dead issue for them politically.  From Bill Clinton on down, guns and gun control just weren't Democrat talking points, although the base continued (and still continues) to want the shred the 2nd Amendment.

There have been hints of this already:  Marco Rubio framed it as a 'let the States decide' issue, which most Republicans can (at least grudgingly) get behind.  Rubio's CPAC speech was full of words like "respect", which acknowledges that most Americans see same-sex marriage as a civil rights issue...which it is (see above).

So, what we can expect to see in the months and years to come is same-sex marriage being howled about only by the dying rump of the social conservatives.  Republican politicians who want to actually win elections will mouth the same old "I'm against it personally, but..." platitudes, and then move on to other, actually important points like reforming entitlements and cutting overall spending and not printing money by the wheelbarrow full.

If we're lucky, the social conservatives will get their panties all in a wad and migrate over to the Prohibition Party, where they'll finally be right at home.  Come soon that happy day, Oh Lord....